…zumindest wenn es nach Goldmann Sachs und einigen amerikanischen Auguren geht. Fakt ist:
Der SPX hat es nun ebenfalls geschafft. Nach dem Regelwerk des Cogito-Kapitalmarktmodells hat der – noch – wichtigste Index der Welt ein bestätigtes Folgekaufsignal geschafft und ist damit für die nächsten 12 -18 Monate ein „strong buy“…Zielzone ist ersteinmal 1520 Punkte.
The year has been good for stocks, but it’s been great for smaller companies. The Standard & Poor’s 100 index, which represents the 100 biggest stocks, rose 6.5%, through Thursday, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was up 9.5%. By contrast, the MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600, which track smaller companies, rose 21% and nearly 20%, respectively.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank in Chicago, advises investors to stick with smaller stocks, especially those in international markets. That’s because these companies have seen bigger earnings improvements, so they still trade at attractive levels. Small-cap shares trade at a price-to-sales ratio of about 0.4, compared with a more expensive ratio of 1.2 for stocks in the S&P 500.
Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup’s (NYSE: C – News) chief U.S. equity strategist, argues that during periods of profit-margin improvement — which has been happening lately — small-cap stocks best their bigger brethren. That trend should continue for the next six months or so, Mr. Levkovich predicts, making small- and mid-cap shares the place to be.
A big risk for stocks: China. With annual inflation running at 4.4%, Chinese leaders are working hard to slow their economy and keep a lid on price increases. If the economy slows too much, it will affect global growth and U.S. shares.
So far this year, betting on consumer spending has worked out, even as most consumers work to cut debt. Consumer discretionary shares, or those of companies that sell items like clothing and music, are up 24%, while utility and health-care shares are down about 1%.
Some say that technology shares, up nearly 7%, now are the place to be. Alan Zafran, co-founder of Luminous Capital, a Los Angeles-based investment adviser, adds that investors should focus on so-called cyclical stocks that tend to do well as economic growth rebounds. He likes both energy and information-technology shares, which have strong balance sheets and impressive growth.
Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT – News), for example, trades at less than 10 times its earnings, excluding its huge cash position, and pays a 2.5% dividend yield. Mr. Zafran argues that Congress might reach a compromise to allow companies like Microsoft to repatriate cash held overseas, giving the company even more resources to boost its dividend or take other steps.
Some of the strength has come from concern that the Fed’s moves will push the value of the dollar lower, paving the way for future inflation. Gold, and to a lesser extent silver, tend to serve as an alternative to paper currencies. So some investors have rushed into these precious metals to protect against weakness in the dollar, as well as the euro, which is dealing with the recent bailout of Ireland.
But some analysts say it’s time for gold and silver bugs to take some profits off the table. Gold will do well if the consumer-price index rises at least 3% over the next three years, argues Mr. Ablin. But with inflation currently running at under 2% and showing few signs of a surge, gold prices may not be able to advance in the near term, some argue.
It’s become conventional wisdom that emerging-markets economies will show huge growth over the next few years, and that the U.S. economy will struggle. That consensus already is priced into stock prices, suggesting that it could be too late to jump on the emerging-markets bandwagon, some argue.
„Emerging-markets equities are expensive relative to the U.S.,“ says Mr. Ablin, who cites data that emerging-markets shares trade at 1.3 times their sales, compared with 1.2 for S&P 500 stocks; emerging-markets shares trade at nearly 18 times their earnings, well above the nearly 15 P/E of S&P 500 shares.
The S&P 100 trades at an attractive 13 times next year’s estimated earnings and has a respectable 2.1% dividend yield. At the same time, U.S. companies are flush with cash and profit margins are wide, partly because companies have been reluctant to hire new workers.
Interessant…nur Eigennutz oder wird „tatsächlich Geld“ nach US zurückgeholt ?
und eine Meldung die nicht untergehen sollte…HRE macht Mittel für Europa frei…